房地产税对房产价格影响效应分析

基于2000~2012 年我国30 个省的房地产税和房价的面板数据，通过平稳性分析、协整检验以及回归分析，研究了我国房地产税和房价之间的关系。研究发现，房地产税对房价有正U 型影响效应，即短期内房地产税能有效抑制房价的上涨，而长期内房地产税的征收则会带动房价的上涨，同时，房地产税对房价的影响具有显著的区域差异，而且各房地产税种对房价的影响也不尽相同。而且上期房价、利率以及其他宏观经济环境对房价也有一定的影响。因此，我国现行房地产税收制度改革过程中，需要考虑宏观经济环境的影响，针对不同地区制定相应的税收政策。

The Impact of Real Estate Tax on Housing Prices

Based on the panel data of real estate tax and house price of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2012,this paper studies the relationship between real estate tax and house price by stationarity analysis,co-integration test and regression analysis. The results show that the real estate tax has a U-shaped effect on housing prices. That is,the real estate tax can effectively inhibit the rise in housing price in the short term,but real estate tax leads to the rise in house price in the long term. At the same time,the impact of real estate tax on housing price has significant regional differences. And the effects of different types of real estate tax on housing prices are also different. Finally,this study presents recommendations on reform of current real estate tax.