湖泊区换填地段高填路堤沉降变形拟合分析及预测研究

基于高填路堤现场实时沉降观测数据，采用双曲线法、指数曲线法、Asaoka法等分别对武汉天河机场第二通道高速公路S6标K12+300断面路堤沉降变形进行拟合分析和预测，并对拟合预测结果进行方差检验和关联度分析，以揭示高填路堤沉降变化规律，探讨实测沉降和曲线拟合与预测之间的关联。结果表明，指数曲线法预测结果精度高，效果最好；对于现场实时观测数据的处理分析，应以填筑后期的沉降观测值为主，尽量减少选用填筑初期的观测信息，建议采用150 d实测数据进行沉降预测及变形控制。

Research on Curve Fitting and Prediction of High-filling Embankment Settlement

Based on the real-time settlement monitoring data of high-filling embankment, hyperbolic method, index curve method and Asaoka method are used to analyze and predict the embankment settlement of a highway project, which are the K12 + 300 cross section of S6 part, located in the second channel of Tianhe airport in Wuhan City. In order to obtain the settlement regular of high-filling embankment and the relationship between the real-time monitoring data and the predicted data, variance test and correlation analysis are used to analyze the prediction results. The results show that the accuracy of index curve method is higher and the effect is better than others; the later settlement data is suggested in the data processing of the real-time measured value rather than the early information, and the 150 days real-time settlement data is more suitable to predict the settlement and control the deformation.