山西能源消费驱动因素的动态计量分析——基于VAR模型

基于1978—2013年山西省能源经济样本数据，在扩展的IPAT等式基础上利用VAR模型对山西能源消费及其影响因素之间的动态计量关系进行定量分析。结果显示，山西省能源消费与经济发展、工业化、固定资产投资之间存在长期动态均衡关系。短期来看，经济发展是驱动山西省能源消费增长的关键因素，其次为工业化水平，固定资产投资作用较弱。但从长期来看，固定资产投资对能源消费具有显著的促进作用。脉冲响应分析显示山西省能源消费与经济发展之间存在库兹涅茨曲线关系，工业化水平的提升会降低山西省经济增长对能源消费的依赖。方差分解分析表明经济发展、固定资产投资、工业化水平对能源消费变动的平均解释贡献率分别为12.5%，5.9%和4.2%。最后对山西省控制能源消费总量、推进绿色低碳经济增长提出了具体建议。

DYNAMIC QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON FACTORS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION BASED ON VAR MODEL

This paper, based on Shanxi’s energy economy data from 1978-2013, uses VAR model to quantitatively analyze their dynamic relation between energy consumption and factors on the basis of expanded IPAT formula with results showing a long-term dynamic balance among the energy consumption and economic growth, industrialization and fixed investment. In a short term, economic growth is the key factor for energy consumption growth, and the next is industrialization. Fixed investment has an outstanding influence in the long term. Impulse response shows a Kuznets curve between energy consumption and economic growth that rise of industrialization will decrease the dependence of economic growth upon energy consumption. Variance analysis indicates that the average contributions of economic growth, fixed investment and industrialization level to energy consumption change are 12.5%, 5.9% and 4.2% respectively. This paper presents suggestions for Shanxi province in controlling overall energy consumption and boosting green low-carbon economy.