CLUE-S土地利用变化模型及其研究进展

在介绍CLUE-S模型的基础上,对国内外有关CLUE-S模型在不同区域土地利用变化模拟、模型的改进,以及其他方面研究的最新进展进行评述,并对CLUE-S模型的应用和应用中存在的主要不足进行分析。根据现有CLUE-S模型存在的缺陷和土地利用/覆被变化预测对模型提出的需求,探讨CLUE-S模型的发展方向,为今后我国对CLUE-S模型的研究提出几点针对性建议:1)目前CLUE-S模型中参数ELAS的设置主要依靠专家知识,今后的研究中,参数设置应更具科学性;2)如何将多个案例研究联结为一个可代表区域空间异质性的网络,将地方尺度和区域尺度的土地利用变化动态联系起来,将是今后重要的研究主题;3)如何考虑经济政策、市场导向等人为驱动因子的量化,也是以后发展CLUE-S模型的一个重要方向;4)CLUE-S模型中,将基于系统的方法与面向决策者的研究等模型结合起来,可更进一步理解土地利用系统的多尺度动力学特征。

LAND USE CHANGE CLUE-S MODEL AND ITS RESEARCH ADVANCES

This paper gives an introduction to CLUE-S model and reviews its research advances in different region land use simulation, model improvement and others, and analyzes its deficiency in application. Aiming at is deficiency and forecasting land use/coverage change, this paper discusses its developing trend and presents suggestions for China’s CLUE-S model research. Setting of parameter ELAS in the CLUE-S model currently depends upon experts’ knowledge, which should be more scientifically. One of the future key topics will be on how to integrate many cases in one network marking regional space, and on linking local land use change to regional. Quantization of driving factors such as economy policy and marketing orientation is also another direction for CLUE-S model. Combination of system based method and decision maker orientated model in CLUE-S model will help further understand the multiple dynamics of land use system.