绥芬河市边境贸易发展对GDP变化影响的关联研究

改革开放以来,作为我国对外开放门户的边境城市,绥芬河市经济迅速腾飞,边境贸易逐步成为边境地区经济发展的最主要贡献因素。边境小额贸易、一般贸易、加工贸易、其他贸易、保税仓库进出境贸易等多样化的边境贸易方式对边境城市的GPD影响关联不尽相同。以黑龙江省边境口岸绥芬河市为例,以绥芬河市2004—2013年边境贸易数据和GDP数据为主要基础资料,采用SPSS软件对边境贸易总量的发展及各贸易方式6项变量对GDP变化的相关性进行回归分析。通过分析得出绥芬河市对外贸易的发展与GDP变化有着紧密的关联,其中一般贸易与GDP具有高度正相关性,而边境小额贸易、加工贸易、保税仓库进出境贸易和其他贸易与GDP变化的相关性并不显著。最后对绥芬河市对外贸易方式优化、经济协调可持续发展提出参考和建议。

CORRELATION BETWEEN BORDER TRADING AND GDP CHANGES IN SUIFENHE CITY

Suifenhe city as a border city for opening has gained a fast economic growth since the Reform and Opening mainly thanks to its border trading. Diversified tradings such as small trading, general trading, manufacturing, others and bonded warehouse import & export trading have a variable correlation with GPD. This paper, based on Suifenhe city’s border trading data in 2004 to 2013 and GDP, uses SPSS to conduct a regress analysis on their correlation between GDP changes to its gross border trading and six trading way variables, which shows a closely connected correlation. The general trading plays a highly positive correlation with GDP, but the others do not. This paper presents suggestions for Suifenhe on optimizing border trading ways and sustaining economy and development.