哈尔滨市城市建设用地结构变化及其影响因素分析

以哈尔滨市中心城区为研究区域，采取回归分析中的后退法和通径分析法，筛选出影响城市建设用地变化的主要因素，通过对相关系数分解，分析各因素对城市用地变化的作用强度，以探讨城市土地资源合理配置的规律。结果表明，房地产开发投资对居住用地变化影响最大，直接效应为0.592；第三产业比重和城区人口通过房地产开发对居住用地产生影响。工业总产值对工业用地变化的影响最大，直接通径系数为0.583，其通过城区人口的间接效应为0.331。固定资产投资是影响哈尔滨市物流仓储用地的首要因素，同时也是影响哈尔滨市道路交通和绿地广场用地的重要因素。城区人口对各类用地变化均有直接或间接影响且作用明显。

STRUCTURE CHANGE AND FACTORS OF URBAN CONSTRUCTION LAND IN HARBIN CITY

This paper takes Harbin’s downtown as the study area, applies the backward and path analysis of regression method to select the main factors in urban construction land change, analyses the their intensity through correlated coefficient decomposition, and discusses rational allocating rules of urban land resources. Real estate investment is the biggest factor in urban land use with a direct coefficient of 0.592. The third industry and urban population also influence residential land through real estate. The gross industrial output influences the industrial land use the most with a direct path coefficient of 0.583, an indirect coefficient of 0.331 through urban population. Fixed investment is the leading factor in Harbin’s logistic and warehousing land use, and also a vital factor in roads and green lands. Urban population has a significant direct and indirect influence on all land use.