基于ARIMA-ANN的大坝安全监控模型

坝体的变形能反映建筑物的运行状况,受各种复杂因素影响,坝体变形监测数据是一个不平稳的时间序列.基于传统时间序列不能解决非平稳数据,使用自回归求和滑动平均序列建立模型,结合工程实例进行坝体变形监测数据的拟合与预测,并用BP神经网络进行误差预测,得到最终预测值.经过实际大坝的数据建模检验,建模方法可行,预测结果精度高,在大坝安全监测中具有较好的实用性.

Dam safety monitoring model based on ARIMA-ANN

Affected by various complicated factors,dam deformation monitoring data is a nonstationary time series.Based on the traditional time-series we can not solve the nonstationary data.Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is used to fit and forecast data.The BP neural network is used to predict error.The dam deformation data fitting analysis and forecasting research show that the ARIMAANN model is not only quickly enough to improve the efficiency of the algorithm,but also has a good effect in fitting with monitoring data,so as to improve forecast accuracy a lot.