基于实测洪水分析的河道截流流量风险估计方法

水电工程施工截流风险与截流标准拟定关系密切,在分析截流施工特点的基础上,根据截流施工的短期性、时机灵活性等工程特点,建立截流流量风险模型;根据近年截流时段的洪水资料分析截流洪水不确定性特征,应用一阶自回归模型模拟截流时段洪水,建立截流施工洪水过程模型;在截流施工工期不确定性分析的基础上,建立截流工期风险模型.应用蒙特卡罗方法耦合截流流量风险模型、截流工期风险模型和截流施工洪水过程模型,建立基于实测洪水分析的河道截流风险估计模型,分析截流流量与截流风险的关系.为河道截流施工流量风险估计和设计标准选择提供理论参考.

River closure discharge risk estimating method based on measured flood

The river closure risk is closely interrelated with the standard choosing for river closure of hydropower project.Based on analyzing the characteristics of river closure construction,a risk model of river closure discharge is established involving the characteristics of a short-term construction and an alterable start time.According to characteristic analysis of measured flood data in river closure period of recent years,first-order autoregressive model is adopted to simulate river closure period flood;then the flood process model in river closure period is established.Then the risk model of river closure construction duration is built up by uncertainties analysis of river closure construction duration.By coupling above three models:the risk model of river closure discharge,the flood process model in river closure period and the risk model of river closure construction duration with Monte Carlo method,the river closure risk estimating model based on measured flood is established to analyze the relationship between the river closure risk and flood flow.The results can be used as a theoretical way to evaluate river closure risk and choose river closure discharge standard.