A genetic-algorithm based neural network short-term forecasting framework for database intrusion prediction system

Information systems are one of the most rapidly changing and vulnerable systems, where security is a major issue. The number of security-breaking attempts originated inside the organizations are increasing steadily. Attacks made in this way, usually done by ``authorized' users of the system, cannot be immediately traced. As the idea of filtering the traffic at the entrance door, by using firewalls and the like, is not completely successful, the use of intrusion detection systems should be considered to increase the defense capacity of an information system. This paper presents a framework for a statistical anomaly prediction system using a neuro-genetic forecasting model, which predicts unauthorized invasions of user, based on previous observations and takes further action before intrusion occurs. In this paper, we propose an evolutionary time-series model for short-term database intrusion forecasting using genetic algorithm owing to its global search capability. The experimental results show that the combination strategy(neuro-genetic) can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the predicting precision compared to the traditional artificial neural network. This paper also focuses on detecting significant changes of transaction intensity for intrusion prediction. The experimental study is performed using real time data provided by a major Corporate Bank. Furthermore, a comparative evaluation of the proposed neuro-genetic model with the traditional feed-forward network trained by the back-propagation with momentum and adaptive learning rate using sum square error on a prediction data set has been presented and a better prediction accuracy has been observed.