| 一种改进的等维新息灰色模型及其在土石坝沉降预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 偶昌宝,俞亚南,范伟霞. 一种改进的等维新息灰色模型及其在土石坝沉降预测中的应用[J]. 水利水电技术, 2005, 36(2): 29-31 |
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| 作者姓名： | 偶昌宝 俞亚南 范伟霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江大学,土木工程系,浙江,杭州,310027;浙江大学,土木工程系,浙江,杭州,310027;浙江大学,土木工程系,浙江,杭州,310027 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50278089). |
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| 摘 要： | 提出采用多层建模与等维新息灰色建模的联合方法预测土石坝沉降．该方法根据灰色理论的等维新息思想，采用参数递推公式计算灰色沉降模型的参数序列，并根据计算出的参数序列构建其预测模型，从而建立了反映系统时变特性的灰色预测模型．实例分析表明，本方法较好地反映了系统的时变性和灰色性，取得了较精确的沉降预测结果．
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| 关 键 词： | 多层递阶 等维新息灰色模型 沉降预测 土石坝 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0860(2005)02-0029-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-07-11 |
Application of a novel equal-dimension new-information grey model to settlement prediction of earth dam |
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| OU Chang-bao,YU Ya-nan,FAN Wei-xia. Application of a novel equal-dimension new-information grey model to settlement prediction of earth dam[J]. Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, 2005, 36(2): 29-31 |
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| Authors: | OU Chang-bao YU Ya-nan FAN Wei-xia |
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| Abstract: | The combined method of multi-layer recursive modeling and equal-dimension new-information grey modeling for predicting the settlement of earth dam is presented. According to the principle of equal dimension new information in grey theory,this method calculates the parameters of grey model of the settlement prediction through the recursive formula. Based on the parameters calculated, the parameters prediction models can be presented.Then the grey prediction model which reflects time-dependent characteristics of the system is established. The case shows that this method is good to analyze the time-dependent and grey characteristics of the system,and has considerable prediction precision. |
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| Keywords: | multi-layer recursive equal-dimension new-information grey model settlement prediction earth dam |
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