油田开发规划科学预测的理论和实践

突出以经济效益为中心,以效益产量为目标的原则,系统、全面的分析石油生产的全过程以及所涉及的各个因素,提出了一套与国际接轨、方法有所创新、适合中国石油天然气股份公司宏观决策需要的集数据管理、预测、优化、评价、实施检查和调节于一体的理论和方法,并研制了相应的软件系统.可实现中国石油天然气股份公司产量结构优化配置、各油气区优化配产和工作量优化安排以及开发等项目的优选排队和投资方向优化,必将极大地提高规划工作者的工作效率,使宏观决策更为科学、规范,最终目的是使效益最大化.

OPTIMUM STUDY AND SIMULATOR OF OILFIELD DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

By considering all the involved processes of oil production,this paper presents optimum study and systemic methods of oilfield development planning,using prediction theory,optimization theory,economic evaluation method, comprehensive evaluation theory and computer technique.Especially,in order to meet various planning requirements three kinds of oilfield development planning models are set up and also resolved by non-linear planning method, they are minimal cost model for a given total oil production rate,profit and loss balance model and maximal profit model.In addition,because of the limits of five year planning model used widely,a year by year planning model is developed,based on the prediction model of flow rate regression and natural degression rate regression. Based on the study,a PC simulator of oilfield development planning is developed,which can be used for predicting oilfield development indexes、confirmming the optimal allocation of production structure in PetroChina level and production optimal allocation to all the oilfields determining comprehensive queue of oilfield development projects and the best investment structure.Recently the simulator was used for the 2000—2005 development planning of PetroChina with satisfactory results.