国际石油市场供求格局正在发生结构性变化

从供给和需求两个方面对国际石油市场格局变化进行了分析。在供给方面,探讨了石油探明储量、产能以及产油主体政策调整等因素的影响。主要观点是:石油储量虽然满足未来数10年的世界石油需求,但探明储量增速明显放缓;世界石油产能增长缓慢,导致剩余产能严重不足;产油主体政策调整进一步制约了产能的增长。在需求方面,探讨了世界经济形势、高油价、能源利用效率、替代能源等因素的影响。主要观点是:世界经济保持较快增长,特别是随着发展中国家工业化程度加深,导致石油需求增长迅速;高油价对世界经济的冲击明显减轻,难以改变石油需求快速增长的趋势;由于石油消费集中在运输领域,节能对减少世界石油需求效果有限;高油价虽能推动替代能源的发展,但石油仍将长期保持主体能源地位。通过供需两方面分析,指出当前世界市场石油供需格局正在发生结构性变化,油价将长期在高位波动。

Structural Changes in the Supply-demand Relationship of International Oil Market

The essay provides in-depth analysis on the structural changes of international oil market from both supply and demand side.On the supply side,proved reserves,production capacity and policy adjustment of oil producing entities are examined.Despite the oil reserves are sufficient to meet world oil demand in the next few decades,the pace of proved reserves growth is decelerating;the growth of production capacity failed to keep pace with the increasing demand,resulting in drastic decline in remaining capacity;the policy adjustment of oil production entities put further strains on production capacity growth.On the demand side,relationship between world economic situation and oil demand,the impact of high oil price on world economic growth,improvement in oil efficiency and development of alternative energy are investigated.High pace of world economic growth,combined with the deepening industrialization of developing countries leads to rapid growth in oil demand;the effect of high oil price shock on world economy is much less than expected and is unable to rein in the rapid increase in oil demand,as a result of the concentration of oil consumption in transport sector,the potential for improving oil efficiency is limited;while high oil price is conducive to the development of alternative energy,petroleum will continue to play a dominant part in energy consumption.On the basis of supply-demand analysis,the essay concludes that the supply-demand situation of world oil market is undergoing structural changes and oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level.