| Abstract: | Uncertainties in common cause event observation, documentation and interpretation are taken into account by conditional probabilities and generalized impact vector weights that separate single and double events of a specific multiplicity in a single observation. Distributions and moments of common cause failure (CCF) rates of a system are obtained in terms of the weights by using probability generating functions, combining assessment uncertainties and statistical uncertainties. These results are then used to generate effective plant-specific input data to general empirical Bayes estimation methods to combine data from many plants. The posterior output yields CCF probabilities for standby safety system fault tree analysis or probabilistic safety assessments of a target plant. |
