变化环境下东北半干旱地区径流演变规律分析——以洮儿河流域为例

受气候变化和人类活动影响，众多河流的径流量发生了改变，深入解析历史径流变化成因并探究未来径流演变趋势，是流域水资源科学管理的必然需求。本文以洮儿河流域为研究区，基于SWAT模型定量揭示历史径流变化原因，并结合未来气候情景，探究未来径流演变趋势。结果表明：洮儿河流域历史年均气温呈显著上升趋势，降水、径流均呈现一定下降趋势；气候变化和人类活动分别是洮儿河流域上游和下游径流变化的主要成因。在未来BCC-CSM2-MR（CMIP6）气候模式下，三种不同排放情景的未来期年均径流量相比于基准期变化-10.14% ~ 16.86%，未来水资源利用将面临更大挑战。研究成果可为深入理解流域历史径流变化成因及未来水资源演变趋势提供科学依据，为流域水资源规划和管理提供决策支持。

Analysis on evolving trends of streamflow in the semi-arid region in Northeast China under changing environment. A case study of Taoer River basin

Climate change and human interferences have induced alterations in the streamflow of many rivers. An important issue is to understand the causes of historical streamflow changes and meanwhile explore their evolving trends in the future. This paper presents an application of the SWAT model to the Taoer River basin. We quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the streamflow changes in historical period, and apply the model to project the trends in the streamflow changes under different future climate scenarios. Results indicate that in the historical period, the annual mean air temperature was increasing significantly, whereas precipitation and streamflow decreased. Climate change and human activities were the main causes of streamflow changes in the upper and lower reaches, respectively. Under the BCC-CSM2-MR (CMIP6) climate scenarios in the future, annual streamflow is projected to decrease, indicating a more challenging situation in water resources utilization. This study reveals the causes of historical streamflow alterations and the future trends of water resources, helping water resources planning and management in the basin scale.