基于净雨预报信息的水库防洪调度方式研究

为进一步提高洪水预报信息在水库调度中的应用水平，本文以山东半岛龙角山水库为研究对象，首先构建在实际生产中广泛应用的新安江模型，采用确定性系数和绝对误差评价模型误差，并通过合格率评定径流深预报和峰现时间预报的精度等级。结果表明，各项评价指标在模型率定期和验证期的精度均为甲等，可为水库预报调度规则的制定提供可靠的理论依据。然后利用新安江模型预报出的净雨信息，制定水库防洪预报调度规则，调算不同频率设计洪水，并与常规调度方式下调洪结果作对比。通过比较发现，预报调度模型能够提前预泄，有效降低水库调洪最高水位和减小最大下泄流量，增加削减洪峰流量，对减小水库上下游防洪风险和提高水库防洪效益具有重要意义。

Study on reservoir flood control operation schemes based on net rain forecast information

To further raise the application level of flood forecast information to reservoir operation, this paper examines reservoir operation schemes based on net rain forecasting through a case study of Longjiaoshan Reservoir in Shandong Peninsula. We construct a commonly-used Xin'anjiang model for this reservoir, and evaluate its errors using the method of deterministic coefficient and absolute error calculations. And the pass rate is adopted to evaluate its accuracy grading in runoff depth predictions and peak time predictions. The results show that this model features with all the evaluation indexes at grade one for both the calibration and verification periods and provides a reliable tool for reservoir operation study. Then, we formulate an operation rule for the reservoir flood control by using its predicted net rainfall information from the Xin'anjiang model, and calculate its design floods of different frequencies. Comparison of the results with those of the conventional reservoir operation shows that the forecast-based operation model, through predicting reservoir discharge in advance, can generate operation schemes that effectively reduce the peak stages and peak discharges of the reservoir and decrease its downstream flood peaks. This means a great significance to the risk reduction of flood control upstream and downstream a reservoir and the improvement on its flood control benefits.