跨流域长距离引调水工程系统的风险及对策

跨流域长距离调水工程是复杂的巨系统，由于存在许多不确定因素，进行系统风险分析是十分必要的．以南水北调中线工程为例，根据已有风险分析定义，初步提出了调水工程系统的组成．从水文、建筑物、经济、政策、环境和社会等几方面分析了对工程系统有影响的风险因子及影响方式．为了综合风险分析，初步提出风险分级的思路．最后，针对调水工程风险类型，提出了减小或转移各类风险的措施，尤其强调了非工程措施在提高工程运行可靠性和减小系统失效损失的作用，为今后建立工程风险管理模型提供依据。

Risk and countermeasures for an inter-basin long distance water transfer system

Inter,basin long distance water transfer project is usually a complex system. Risk analysis has to be made because of numerous uncertain factors. For example, for the middle route of the South to North Water Transfer Project the composition of integral parts was determined firstly based on risk analysis, and then the risk factors and influencing forms were analyzed from the viewpoints of hydrology, politics, environment and society. An idea of risk classification was identified for its synthetic analysis. Finally, risk mitigating and shifting measures were proposed, and particular emphasize was placed on the effects of non,structural measures on the reliability of the project and the improvement of forfeiture. This will provide a strong basis for the development of a project risk management model.