Lee-Carter模型在新农保中的应用

在Lee-Carter模型的基础上,提出了改进的双误差模型来预测未来中国农村人口死亡率,并得到了动态生命表。从统计角度出发,构建新农保的净支出模型,最后结合动态生命表预测未来国家在新农保中的支出情况。根据数据分析可知,中国农村未来人口死亡率有所改善,并且随着补缴人群的增多,国家在新农保中的支出也会增多。

Application of Lee-Carter Model in New Rural Social Pension Insurance

This paper puts forward an improved two-error model based on the Lee-Carter model, to predict the future mortality of Chinese rural population, which gets future varying-lifetables at the same time. By the viewpoint of statistics, a net income model is built, which combined with varying-lifetables, is used to forecast the future financial expenditure in new rural social pension insurance （NRSPI）. According to the analysis of the data, the future mortality of Chinese rural population will be improved, and with the increasing of retroactive resident, the government expenditure will be increasing.