Development and validation of growth model for Yersinia enterocolitica in cooked chicken meats packaged under various atmosphere packaging and stored at different temperatures.

Mathematical models that can predict the growth of Yersinia enterocolitica in chicken meats were evaluated in this study. The growth curves for Y. enterocolitica in chicken meats variously packaged (air, vacuum, and modified atmosphere packaging MAP]) and stored at various temperatures (4, 10, 16, 22, 28, and 34 degrees C) were constructed. The Gompertz model was applied to fit each of the experimental curves for the conditions mentioned above. The variations in the parameters, including lag time (lambda) and specific growth rate (mu), at various temperatures were then described by the following models: the variations in lag time were described by the Adair and Smith models and the variations in the specific growth rate were described by the Ratkowsky and Zwietering models. The various models were then compared using graphical and mathematical analyses such as mean square error (MSE), regression coefficient (r2), bias factor, and accuracy factor. The results indicate that the mean r values in the Gompertz model for chicken meats packaged in air, vacuum, and MAP were 0.99, 0.99, and 0.95, respectively. The lag time modeled with the Adair and Smith functions exhibited a greater variance and demonstrated larger errors. The MSEs were 0.0015 and 0.0017 for Ratkowsky and Zwietering models, respectively. The r2 values in the Ratkowsky and Zwietering models were both 0.99. The bias factor was 1.017 for the Ratkowsky model and 1.096 for the Zwietering model. The accuracy factor of the Zwietering model was 1.174, which was lower than that in the Ratkowsky model (1.275), indicating that the former model was more accurate than the latter in predicting the specific growth rate of Y. enterocolitica in chicken meats.