基于变权集对–可拓耦合模型的溃坝后果综合评价

溃坝后果严重程度综合评价是大坝风险评价与风险管理的重要组成部分。针对传统溃坝后果综合评价中人为主观设定指标权重固定不变，以及评价指标值与评价等级标准隶属过程中存在不相容等问题，基于现有法律法规以及行业规范，选取生命损失、经济损失、社会影响和环境影响为溃坝后果综合评价指标，采用变权理论对评价指标常权权重进行修正，利用集对分析能有效处理系统不确定性的特点和可拓学处理不相容性问题的优势，构建基于变权集对-可拓耦合的综合评价模型。通过集对分析的同、异、反划分可拓集合的论域进而确定可拓联系隶属度，结合评价指标变权权重计算集成可拓联系隶属度，进而按最大集成可拓联系隶属度原则确定评价等级。将该模型应用于江西省5座水库溃坝后果综合评价中，结果显示：1）指数型激励性状态变权向量对5座水库溃坝后果综合评价中各个较差的评价指标进行了一定程度上的激励，增大了其权重值，突出了较差指标在综合评价中的地位，避免了较差指标的消极作用被较好指标掩盖；2）5座水库溃坝后果综合评价等级与其它多种评价模型计算出的评价等级基本吻合，且离散程度最高、区分度更好，显示了所提出的模型具有良好的实用性，为溃坝后果综合评价提供了一种新方法。

Comprehensive Evaluation of Dam-break Consequences Based on Variable Weight Set Pair–Extenics Coupling Model

The comprehensive assessment of severity degree of dam failure impact is an important part of dam risk evaluation and management. There are two major problems identified in the traditional comprehensive evaluation of dam break consequences: (a) constant weight set subjectively by human beings, and (b) incompatibility between evaluation index value and evaluation grade standard. In order to solve the above-mentioned drawbacks, based on existing laws and regulations and industry norms, life loss, economic loss, social impact and environmental impact are selected as comprehensive evaluation indexes of dam break consequences, considering the characteristic that set pair analysis deals with the uncertainty of the system effectively and the advantage of extenics in dealing with the incompatibility problem, the Variable Weight Set Pair-Extenics coupling model is established, in which the variable weight theory is used to modify the constant weight. In this model, the connection membership degree of extenics is determined according to the domain of extenics set divided by identity, difference and opposite of set pair analysis. Furthermore, the integrated connection membership degree of extenics is calculated combined with the variable weight, and is used to determine the evaluation grade according to the principle of maximum membership. The application to the comprehensive evaluation of dam break consequences of five reservoirs in Jiangxi Province, The results show that: 1) In the comprehensive evaluation of the consequences of dam break of five reservoirs, the exponential excitation state variable weight vector motivates the poor evaluation indexes to a certain extent and increases their weight values, highlighting the status of the poor indexes in the comprehensive evaluation, avoiding the negative effects of the poor indexes being covered by the good indexes and emphasizing their seriousness; 2) The comprehensive evaluation grades of dam break consequences of the five reservoirs are basically consistent with the evaluation grades calculated by other evaluation models, with the highest degree of dispersion and better discrimination, which shows good practicability, and provides a new method for comprehensive evaluation of dam break consequences.