基于熵权-层次分析法的中国现代煤化工行业可持续发展综合评价

中国现代煤化工行业规模扩张迅速，但其可持续发展也面临高资源消耗、环境污染严重等挑战。本研究建立了基于环境、经济、社会和技术这4个方面的中国现代煤化工行业可持续发展综合评价指标体系。采用熵权法和层次分析法相结合的权重模型，量化了煤直接液化、煤间接液化、甲醇制汽油、中低温煤焦油加氢、煤制甲醇燃料、煤制天然气、煤制烯烃、煤制芳烃和煤制乙二醇这9种现代煤化工技术路线在4个方面的可持续性表现以及综合可持续发展指数，为行业的科学发展提供决策支持。研究结果表明，每种技术路线在环境、经济、社会和技术这4个方面的可持续性表现差异较为明显。煤间接液化的综合可持续性表现最优，其次为中低温煤焦油加氢、煤直接液化和煤制天然气；而甲醇制汽油和煤制芳烃的综合可持续性表现较差。除了煤炭资源丰富的地区之外，在水资源较丰富、环境容量较大的地区布局示范项目理论上也支持现代煤化工行业的可持续发展。最后，基于结论提出建议，为现代煤化工行业制定可持续发展战略、科学布局与合理规划提供重要参考。

Comprehensive evaluation on sustainable development of China's advanced coal to chemicals industry based on EWM-AHP

With the scale booming in recent years, the sustainable development of China’s advanced coal chemical industry (ACCI) has faced many challenges such as high resource depletion and serious pollution simultaneously. This study establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for sustainable development of China’s ACCI based on four aspects: environment, economy, society and technology. Using the weight model combining entropy weight method (EWM) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the sustainability performances in four aspects and comprehensive sustainable development indexes for the nine technology routes of ACCI (namely direct coal liquefaction, indirect coal liquefaction, methanol to gasoline, low-temperature coal tar hydrogenation, coal to methanol fuel, coal to synthetic natural gas, coal to olefin, coal to arene and coal to glycol) are quantified to provide decision support for the scientific development of the industry. The results show that the environmental, economic, social and technological sustainability performance of each technology route varies significantly. Indirect coal liquefaction has the best comprehensive sustainability performance, followed by low-temperature coal tar hydrogenation, direct coal liquefaction and coal to synthetic natural gas. However, the comprehensive sustainability performances of methanol to gasoline and coal to arene are poor. In addition to the areas rich in coal resources, laying out projects in the areas with abundant water resources and large environmental capacity could support the sustainable development of ACCI in theory as well. Finally, implications are put forward to offer a valuable reference for preparing sustainable development strategies, scientific layout and rational planning of ACCI.