我国信贷投放的经济波动效应及其调整

在梳理改革开放以来我国信贷投放演化路径的基础上,实证检验了信贷投放波动与经济增长和通货膨胀之间的关系,认为大幅波动的信贷投放不仅有悖于我国宏观政策的稳定性和连续性,同时也不利于物价稳定和经济持续稳定增长。当前,我国即将进入新一轮信贷投放周期,面对不确定性日增的国内外经济金融形势,我国的信贷投放很有可能遵循已有投放路径。有鉴于此,基于宏观审慎框架探讨了平滑信贷投放波动逆周期调整模式,以2011-2013年为例实证检验了信贷调控目标的合理性。结果证明,基于宏观审慎框架下的信贷逆周期调整符合我国货币政策要求,有利于保持宏观政策的稳定性和连续性。

Economic Fluctuations Effect of Credit Input and Adj ustment Mechanism in China

On the basis of sorting China′s credit evolutionary path from reforming and opening up,this paper empirically tests the relationship of credit,economic growth and inflation,think that volatility of credit is not only contrary to the stability and continuity of macroeconomic poli-cies,but also conducive to price stability and steady economic growth.Currently,China is about to enter a new round of credit cycle,facing the uncertainty in domestic and international economic and financial situation,our credit is likely to follow the path that has been input already.In view of this,based on macro-prudential framework the paper discussed counter-cyclical adj ustment mode of smoothing fluctuation of credit input,from 2011 to 2013 as an example to empirically test the reasonableness of the credit control targets.The result prove credit counter-cyclical ad-j ustment based on macro-prudential framework is in line with the requirements of monetary poli-cy,and conducive to maintaining stability and continuity of macroeconomic policies.