中国制造业升级的区域差异及收敛性分析——基于出口技术复杂度视角

利用14个类别的制造业数据，测算2002—2021年中国31个省市自治区制造业出口技术复杂度，考察制造业升级程度，并运用δ收敛、绝对β收敛与条件β收敛探究制造业升级的收敛特征。研究发现：样本期内各省制造业出口技术复杂度皆有大幅提升；全国及四大区域存在δ收敛特征；东部和东北地区不存在绝对β收敛特征，全国、中部与西部存在绝对β收敛特征。分阶段分析结果表明：2002—2004年，全国及四大区域仅西部地区存在绝对β收敛；2005—2012年，除东部地区外，全国及其他区域均存在绝对β收敛；2013—2021年，全国及四大区域皆呈现显著的绝对β收敛态势，且存在着显著的条件β收敛特征。据此，提出协调制造业区域内均衡发展新方式和实行省域差异化发展新战略等对策建议。

Regional Discrepancy and Convergence Analysis of China’s Manufacturing Industry Upgrading：From the Perspective of Export Technical Complexity

By using 14 categories of manufacturing data, a calculation has been made of the technical complexity of manufacturing export in 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China from 2002 to 2021, followed by an investigation of the degree of manufacturing upgrading, as well as an inquiry into the convergence characteristics of manufacturing upgrading by applying δ convergence, absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence. It is found that the technical complexity of manufacturing export in each province has experienced a significant increase during the sample period with δ convergence characteristics in the whole country and four regions; there is no absolute β convergence in the eastern and northeastern regions but in the central and western regions nationwide. The phased analysis results show that from 2002 to 2004, only the western region of China and the four major regions are characterized with absolute β convergence; from 2005 to 2012, there was absolute β convergence in the whole country and other regions except the eastern region. From 2013 to 2021, the whole country and four major regions showed a significant trend of absolute β convergence with a significant characteristic of conditional β convergence. Based on this, some countermeasures and suggestions have been proposed for a coordination of the balanced development in the manufacturing industry region and implementation of the new strategy for provincial differentiated development.