| 基于准实时数据的动态日负荷预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏津磷,李晓明,孙晶. 基于准实时数据的动态日负荷预报[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2003, 36(6): 100-103 |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏津磷 李晓明 孙晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北,武汉,430072;湖北省电力公司,湖北,武汉,430070
2. 武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北,武汉,430072 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种基于准实时数据的动态日负荷预报的方法.该方法以电能量远程采集的准实时数据为基础,通过对最近一个月的日负荷数据按工作日和节假日分类统计计算,采用回归模型和最小二乘估计确定其回归系数,获得工作日和节假日典型的日负荷曲线,然后,用同类典型日负荷曲线动态预报相邻日的日负荷.该方法的预测精度高于极大似然估计方法的预测精度,它可以应用于配网调度自动化和用电管理.该方法已经过襄樊供电局电能量采集与分析系统数据验证,其结果证明合理可行.
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| 关 键 词： | 典型日负荷曲线 电能量远程采集 负荷预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8844(2003)06-100-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-02-18 |
Forecast of dynamic daily loads based on hypo-real-time data |
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| SU Jin-lin. Forecast of dynamic daily loads based on hypo-real-time data[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2003, 36(6): 100-103 |
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| Authors: | SU Jin-lin |
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| Affiliation: | SU Jin-lin~ |
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| Abstract: | A method of dynamic daily load forecasting based on hypo-real-time data is put forward. With the method, the daily load data for nearly a month is classified and calculated according to workday and festival or holiday; and the regression model and estimation method of least squares is used to decide its regression coefficient, so the typical daily load curve of workday and holiday or festival can be obtained. The precision of the method is higher than one of the maximum of greatest similar estimation. This kind of typical daily load curve can be applied to dynamic daily load forecast of the next latest week for dispatching and management of distribution network. This method has been tested and proved by data of Xiangfan power supply station's electric energy measuring and analyzing system; the error is smaller, and the result is proved to be reasonable and practicable. |
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| Keywords: | daily load curve electric energy measurement load forecast |
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