四川地区大规模水电集群停机避峰特征分析及管理系统设计

近年来，随着四川地区水电站数量和装机规模的急剧增加，大规模水电集群同时采取停机避峰措施对电网安全运行的影响日益突出。文中结合四川地区水电站运行、水电调度管理和电网运行实际情况，明确了引发水电站停机避峰的主要因素为流量、泥沙和杂质，分析了大规模集群径流式水电站停机避峰对电网调度的影响；从时间和空间(流域)2个维度研究了停机避峰发生的分布特征，提出了以流量和水质作为预测水电站是否发生停机避峰的可行判断方法；从预测方法、实时监测和系统架构等方面介绍大规模水电集群停机避峰管理系统设计思路。所设计的管理系统在四川电网的实际应用表明，该系统可以提高电网调度机构对实时停机避峰掌控能力，有助于辅助电网汛期安全稳定运行，可以为区域电网和水电站厂停机避峰管理提供参考。

Analysis of Shutdown and Peak Averting Characteristics and Design of Management System for Centralized Large-scale Hydropower Generator Group in Sichuan Area

In recent years, with the rapid increase of the number and installed capacity of hydropower stations in Sichuan, the impact of simultaneous shutdown and peak averting measures of the centralized large-scale hydropower generator group on the safe operation of power grid has become increasingly prominent. Combined with the actual situation of hydropower station operation, hydropower dispatching management and power grid operation in Sichuan, it is defined that the main factors causing shutdown and peak averting in hydropower station are flow, sediment and impurities, and the impact of shutdown and peak averting of the centralized large scale run-of-river hydropower stations on power grid dispatching is analyzed. The distribution characteristics of shutdown and peak averting is studied from two dimensions of time and space (watershed), and the flow and water quality are proposed as a feasible judgment method to predict whether the hydropower station will shut down and avoid peak load. Finally, the design idea for shutdown and peak averting management system of the centralized large-scale hydropower generator group is introduced from the aspects of prediction method, real-time monitoring and system architecture. The practical application of the management system in Sichuan power grid shows that the proposed system can improve the organization ability of power grid dispatching to control the real-time shutdown and peak averting, help to assist the safe and stable operation of power grid in flood season, and provide a reference for the shutdown and peak averting management of the regional power grid and hydropower plants.