| 房地产泡沫甄别方法与杭州的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 毛栋梁,陈多长,柴肖容. 房地产泡沫甄别方法与杭州的实证研究[J]. 浙江工业大学学报, 2006, 34(4): 459-463,472 |
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| 作者姓名： | 毛栋梁 陈多长 柴肖容 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江工业大学,经贸管理学院,浙江,杭州,310032 |
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| 摘 要： | 常用的房地产泡沫甄别方法有三类九种，评价了常用的几种房地产泡沫甄别方法，认为其中理论基础可靠、检验比较有效的方法有租售比法、房价收入比法、房价增长率与GDP增长率比较法和理论价格法等，在综合运用租售比法、房价收入比法、房价增长率与GDP增长率比较法、理论价格法和计量模型法的基础上对杭州市房地产市场进行实证检验，最后得到的一致性结论是，杭州房地产价格从2000年就已经开始泡沫化，到2004年达到考察期的峰值。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产泡沫 甄别方法 杭州 实证研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4303（2006）04-0459-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-24 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-24 |
Methods of real estate bubble measurement and a demonstrative research of Hangzhou |
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| MAO Dong-liang,CHEN Duo-zhang,CHAI Xiao-rong. Methods of real estate bubble measurement and a demonstrative research of Hangzhou[J]. Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology, 2006, 34(4): 459-463,472 |
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| Authors: | MAO Dong-liang CHEN Duo-zhang CHAI Xiao-rong |
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| Affiliation: | College of Business and Administration, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310032, China |
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| Abstract: | The real estate bubble measurements can be classified into three sorts and nine kinds.The potent methods are the ratio of rent to selling price,the ratio of selling price to income,the ratio of the growth rate of selling price to the growth rate of GDP and the real price method and so on.This paper uses the ratio of rent to selling price,the ratio of selling price to income,the ratio of the growth rate of selling price to the growth rate of GDP,the real price method and the method of econometrics to study Hangzhou's real estate market.The demonstrative research reveals that,the bubble of the housing price in Hangzhou appears in the year of 2000 and maximized in 2004.Though the bubble is not yet very serious,it calls for enough attention. |
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| Keywords: | real estate bubble measurement Hangzhou a demonstrative research |
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