基于GIS区域边坡失稳灾害预测与评价

 滑坡和泥石流是边坡失稳后两种主要的运动方式，是山区重大的地质灾害。对既往滑坡和泥石流进行研究，以此作为基础来预测和评价本地区潜在的滑坡和泥石流灾害，是防灾减灾的一个重要措施。大多数泥石流是在强降雨的情况下，由滑坡滑入山谷河道而形成的。基于地理信息系统(GIS)和数值模型相结合的方法，采用两步骤方法预测和评价日本熊本县水俣市宝川区集地区的滑坡和泥石流灾害。首先分析该区域可能存在的新滑坡，然后假定这些滑坡在遇到强降雨时形成泥石流，利用数值模拟流动过程分析其在三维复杂地形下的泛滥过程，预测可能受害的房屋和路段。

PREDICTION AND ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL SLOPE-FAILURE HAZARD BASED ON GIS

Landslides and debris flows，the main types of movements when slope failures occur，are sources of severe geohazards in mountainous regions throughout the world. Area-scale landslide and debris flow hazard prediction and assessment are hot topics in the research of geohazards. The study of the mechanism and properties of historical landslide is a valuable reference for prediction and assessment of the future landslide hazard in adjacent or geotechnically similar area and is also useful for hazards mitigation. Most debris flows originally occur in the form of rainfall-induced landslides before they move into a valley channel. Based on the coupling of geographic information system(GIS) and numerical model，a two-step method is adopted to predict and assess the disasters of landslide and debris flow in Atsumari area，Minamata City，Kumamoto Prefecture，Japan. Firstly，the potential new landslides are predicted. Then，it is supposed that landslide will transform into debris flow when meeting heavy rainfall；using GIS-based numerical simulation model of debris flow，the inundated area across three-dimensional terrain is simulated；and the potentially affected homes，streams and road sections are predicted.