Addressing uncertainty in life-cycle carbon intensity in a national low-carbon fuel standard |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA;2. Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA;1. College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University of Science & Technology, Xiangtan, Hunan 411201, China;2. Botswana Innovation Hub, Maranyane House, Plot 50654, P/Bag 00265, Gaborone, BW, Botswana;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA;4. College of Civil Engineering, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350108, China;5. Chongqing Key Lab of Catalysis &Functional Organic Molecules, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing 400067, China;1. Institute for Economy and the Environment, Tigerbergstrasse 2, CH-9000 St.Gallen, Switzerland;2. State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 320 Bray Hall, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, United States;1. Institute of Ecological Economics at Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330013 China;2. Institute of Finance, College of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510632 China;1. Department of Global Health and Development, Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK;2. Laboratory for Public Health Research Biotechnologies, University of Yaoundé 1, Nkolbisson, Yaoundé, Cameroon;3. Department of Health Administration and Management, College of Medicine, University of Nigeria (Enugu Campus), Old UNTH Road, 40001, Enugu, Nigeria |
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| Abstract: | Policies formulated to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as a low-carbon fuel standard, frequently rely on life-cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate emissions, but LCA results are often highly uncertain. This study develops life-cycle models that quantitatively and qualitatively describe the uncertainty and variability in GHG emissions for both fossil fuels and ethanol and examines mechanisms to reduce those uncertainties in the policy process. Uncertainty regarding emissions from gasoline is non-negligible, with an estimated 90% confidence interval ranging from 84 to 100 g CO2e/MJ. Emissions from biofuels have greater uncertainty. The widths of the 90% confidence intervals for corn and switchgrass ethanol are estimated to be on the order of 100 g CO2e/MJ, and removing emissions from indirect land use change still leaves significant remaining uncertainty. Though an opt-in policy mechanism can reduce some uncertainty by incentivizing producers to self-report fuel production parameters, some important parameters, such as land use change emissions and nitrogen volatilization, cannot be accurately measured and self-reported. Low-carbon fuel policies should explicitly acknowledge, quantify, and incorporate uncertainty in life cycle emissions in order to more effectively achieve emissions reductions. Two complementary ways to incorporate this uncertainty in low carbon fuel policy design are presented. |
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