A model of residential energy end-use in Canada: Using conditional demand analysis to suggest policy options for community energy planners

We applied conditional demand analysis (CDA) to estimate the average annual energy use of various electrical and natural gas appliances, and derived energy reductions associated with certain appliance upgrades and behaviours. The raw data came from 9773 Canadian households, and comprised annual electricity and natural gas use, and responses to >600 questions on dwelling and occupant characteristics, appliances, heating and cooling equipment, and associated behaviours. Replacing an old (>10 years) refrigerator with a new one was estimated to save 100 kW h/year; replacing an incandescent lamp with a CFL/LED lamp was estimated to save 20 kW h/year; and upgrading an old central heating system with a new one was estimated to save 2000 kW h/year. This latter effect was similar to that of reducing the number of walls exposed to the outside. Reducing the winter thermostat setpoint during occupied, waking hours was estimated to lower annual energy use by 200 kW h/°C-reduction, and lowering the thermostat setting overnight in winter relative to the setting during waking hours (night-time setback) was estimated to have a similar effect. This information may be used by policy-makers to optimize incentive programs, information campaigns, or other energy use change instruments.