The impact of climate change on the European energy system |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Goethe University Frankfurt, Ruth-Moufang-Str. 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany;2. Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmans Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark;3. Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany;1. Environment and Energy Systems Engineering Research Center, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;2. Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Sask S4S 7H9, Canada;3. Sino-Canada Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;1. CCEE Department at North Carolina State University, 2501 Stinson Dr., 27607, Raleigh, NC, USA;2. Institute of Electrical and Energy Systems at the Federal University of Itajubá, BPS Av., 1303, 37500-903, Itajubá, MG, Brazil;3. MC&E Research, R. Sebastião Pereira Leite, 48, 37500-099, Itajubá, MG, Brazil;4. Institute of Natural Resources at the Federal University of Itajubá, BPS Av., 1303, 37500-903, Itajubá, MG, Brazil;1. Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives, Energy Economics Group, Gusshausstrasse 25-29/370-3, 1040 Vienna, Austria;2. University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, 1190 Vienna, Austria;3. University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Institute of Meteorology, 1190 Vienna, Austria;1. CESAM – Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal;2. EPHYSLAB – Environmental Physics Laboratory, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain;3. Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida 341, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal;1. CESAM – Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies & Department of Environmental Planning, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal;2. CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal;3. Department of Applied Economics, Facultade Ciencias Empresariais e Turismo, University of Vigo, 32004 Ourense, Spain;4. GOVCOPP – Research Unit in Governance, Competitiveness and Public Policy & Department of Economics, Management, Industrial Engineering and Tourism, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal |
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| Abstract: | Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented.Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe.There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change impacts Heating and cooling Climate and energy scenarios |
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