Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian, 361005, PR China;2. Newhuadu Business School, Minjiang University, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350108, PR China;3. School of Energy Research, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, PR China;1. School of International Trade and Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, Jinan 250014, People Republic of China;2. School of International Trade and Economics, Shandong University of Finance and Economics, People Republic of China;1. Department of Computer Science, MacEwan University, Canada;2. Higher Education Development Centre, University of Otago, New Zealand;3. Traffic Safety Section, City of Edmonton, Canada;1. Department of Finance, Ocean University of China, China;2. Department of Accounting and Information, Ling Tung University, Taiwan;3. Department of Finance, West University of Timisoara, Timisoara, Romania |
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| Abstract: | China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. |
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| Keywords: | Oil saving potential Co-integration method Monte Carlo simulation |
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