How much have electricity shortages hampered China's GDP growth? |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong;2. Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc., 101 Montgomery Street, Suite 1600, San Francisco, CA 94104, USA;3. Hong Kong Energy Studies Centre, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong;1. Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong;2. Department of Asian and Policy Studies, Education University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong;3. Frontier Associates LLC, 1515 S. Capital of Texas Highway, Suite 110, Austin, Texas 78746, USA;4. LBJ School of Public Affairs and Department of Statistics, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78713, USA;1. Accounting School, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics (SUIBE), Wenxiang Road 1900, Songjiang District, Shanghai 201620, China;2. School of Brunel Engineering and Design, Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, United Kingdom;3. Overseas Department, China Architecture Design & Research Group, Tower A, No. 36 Deshengmenwai Street, Xicheng District, Beijing 100120, China;1. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan;3. Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan;4. Institute of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan;5. Department of Energy and Environment, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah, Pakistan;1. School of Economics and Finance, Xi''an Jiaotong University, China;2. Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment, Harvard University, USA;3. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), UK |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on an econometric analysis of the annual growth data for China's GDP and electricity generation from 1953 to 2010, we find that electricity generation growth Granger causes GDP growth, but not vice versa. We also find that the GDP elasticity of electricity generation is about 0.6, implying that a 1% increase in China's electricity generation growth would increase GDP growth by 0.6%. While Deng's reform raised China's GDP growth rate by about 5% per year, it did not alter the GDP elasticity of electricity generation. Hence, an obvious strategy to promote China's economic growth would be accelerating electricity generation expansion. Rapidly adding thermal generation units, however, could have large-scale, adverse environmental impacts. We therefore support China's 2011 five-year plan, which calls for expanding investments in renewable energy, conservation and energy efficiency as well as improving China's integrated electricity planning and cost-based pricing decisions. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
