基于模糊理论的低压开关设备故障预测研究*

引入模糊综合评判方法，对低压开关设备进行故障分析，建立了低压开关设备故障模糊预测模型，其中将三角模糊数融入到AHP方法中确定故障预测权重系数，使在确定因素权重过程中的主观判断更符合人们的思维习惯和表达方式。以该方法为基础构建了故障模糊预测专家系统框架，详细介绍了专家系统的总体结构和功能，并通过实例进行仿真实验。结果表明该方法具有较好的预测能力和高效性。

Study of fault forecast of low-voltage switchgear assembly based on fuzzy theory

This paper introduced fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,analysed faults of low-voltage switchgear assemblies and constructed a fuzzy forecast model of low-voltage switchgear assemblies' faults.It integrated trigonometry fuzzy into AHP method to determine weight coefficient of fault forecast,aiming to its process accord with people's thinking and expression.Constructed an expert system of fault forecast,gave an introduction about its structure and functions in detail.Do a simulation experiment by instance,the result shows this system can make better prediction and have high performance.