复产矿井瓦斯涌出量预测影响因素及偏差分析

针对复产矿井采掘期间配风依据不足的问题，在分析复产矿井瓦斯涌出量影响因素的基础上，以湖南省利民煤矿为研究对象，采用分源法和统计法，对矿井达产时不同生产时期的瓦斯涌出量进行定量预测和偏差分析。研究结果表明，采用分源法预测的矿井相对瓦斯涌出量为55.34～90.59 m³/t，绝对瓦斯涌出量为36.90～60.39 m³/min；采用统计法预测的矿井相对瓦斯涌出量为59.49～72.51 m³/t，绝对瓦斯涌出量为29.19～33.81 m³/min，矿井瓦斯涌出量随开采年度呈线性增加趋势；矿井相对瓦斯涌出量预测误差为6.98%~19.96%，受控于开采层及邻近层的煤厚、煤层原始瓦斯含量、开采深度、地质条件等自然因素，而矿井绝对瓦斯涌出量预测误差为20.89%~44.01%，受控于开采规模、开采顺序、回采进度等生产因素和停产导致的时间因素变化。

Influencing factors and deviation analysis of gas emission prediction in re-production mines

Aiming at the problem of insufficient basis for air distribution during the mining of the re-production mine，based on the analysis of the influencing factors of gas emission from the re-production mine，the Limin Coal Mine of Hunan Province was taken as the research object，and the source and statistical methods were adopted to reach the output of the mine，quantitative prediction and deviation analysis of gas emission in different production periods when the mine was in production.The research results showed that the relative gas emission from the mine predicted by the split source method was 55.34～90.59 m³/t，and the absolute gas emission was 36.90～60.39 m³/min；the relative gas emission from the mine predicted by the statistical method，the output was 59.49～72.51 m³/t and the absolute gas emission was 29.19～33.81 m³/min.The mine gas emission increased linearly with the mining year；the prediction error of the mine relative gas emission was 6.98%~19.96%，controlled by natural factors such as coal thickness of the mining layer and adjacent layers，coal seam original gas content，mining depth，geological conditions，etc.，and the prediction error of mine absolute gas emission was 20.89%~44.01%，controlled by changes in production factors such as mining scale，mining sequence，mining schedule and time factors caused by shutdowns.