遗煤自燃风险评价方法与风险发展趋势研究

为了解采空区遗煤自燃风险程度及其与影响因素关系,对自燃风险进行评价,提出一种博弈可拓算法。算法将博弈的主客观权重分析与可拓的倾向性分析结合,可确定被评价对象所处状态及状态发展趋势,得到因素的主观权重和客观权重。根据综合权重降序排列因素指标,改造排序靠前的指标。该方法可表示评价等级与相邻评价等级的关系,从而确定指标的发展趋势。应用该方法分析了某煤矿采空区遗煤层的8个样本位置自燃风险,结果表明8个位置中,状态发展向安全方向的有5个,向风险很大方向发展的有3个。与实际评价结果相比,该算法结果的正确率在75%~87.5%之间,高于对比文献的62.5%。

Spontaneous Combustion Risk Assessment of Residual Coal and Research on the Development Trend of Risk

In order to understand the risk degree of the residual coal spontaneous combustion, the relationship between the risk degree and influence factors, this paper proposes a game extension algorithm to assess the risk of spontaneous combustion. Algorithm is composed of the subjective and objective weights of game analysis and the tendency analysis of extension. The state of the evaluation object and development trend can be determined. The subjective weight and objective weight of factors are obtained. The front index are transformed according to the comprehensive weight descend order factors. The method can indicate the relationship between the evaluation level and the adjacent evaluation level, so as to determine the development trend of the factors. This method is employed to analyze the spontaneous combustion risk of eight sample places in a residual coal. Results show five samples develop towards safety state, and three samples develop towards risk state. Compared with the actual evaluation results, the correct of the results is between 75%~87.5%, which is higher than that of comparative actual literature 62.5%.