盾构隧道下穿高速铁路站场安全风险评估管理方法

为提高风险评估对工程设计的指导性,本文结合某地铁区间盾构隧道下穿高速铁路站场工程实例,尝试将风险评估、数值模拟和工程设计结合起来形成反馈机制。首先采用安全风险层次-模糊综合评价法(AHP-FE)对工程进行了初步评估,得到了初步的设计阶段风险等级“高度”和主要风险源及排序;然后采用数值模拟方法对盾构下穿铁路站场进行了施工模拟,得到了主要风险源相关指标的预测值,并提出了系列控制措施;在此基础上,再一次采用安全风险模糊评估理论对工程进行风险分析,最后得到设计阶段允许的“中度”风险等级和相应的风险源排序。本文所遵循的风险评估方法和流程可以提高风险评估的准确性和合理性。

Security Risk Assessment Management on Shield Tunnel under-crossing High-Speed Railway Station

In order to improve the instructive effect of risk assessment for engineering design, a feedback mechanism was formed by taking risk assessment, numerical simulation and engineering design into consideration, based on an metro engineering with shield tunnels under-crossing high-speed railway station. A primary risk assessment with the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Evaluation Method (AHP-FE) was made firstly, primary risk grade of high, major risk sources and their ranking were concluded then. In order to analyze the major risk source accurately, a numerical simulation for the tunnel construction was adopted and the related indexes of the major risk source was acquired accordingly, therefore, a series of regulatory measures was proposed. On this basis, a risk assessment with fuzzy analysis for the engineering was accomplished again, the ultimate reasonable risk ranking and allowable risk grade of moderate was obtained. The risk assessment method and process in this paper is efficient to improve the accuracy and rationality of risk assessment.