新增探明储量采收率预测方法评价与研究

新增探明储量由于资料所限,不能采用动态法标定可采储量,最常用的方法是类比法、经验公式法和经验值法等,如何准确预测采收率是合理计算可采储量和新增探明储量评审工作的技术关键与难点.该文在充分调研采收率预测现状与存在的主要问题基础上,对比新增探明储量各种采收率预测方法优、缺点,提出了新增探明储量采收率预测方法顺序为经验值法(小型油藏)-类比法验证(中型油藏)-经验公式法-综合地质法-数值模拟法进一步验证(大型油藏),建立适合本公司油藏地质特征的类比序列和经验值标准,为新增探明储量采收率预测提供依据. 

Evaluation and study of recovery rate prediction method for newly-proved reserves

For the newly-proved reserves,dynamic methods are not qualified to predict recoverable quantity due to the lack of production data.The methods used most widely include analogy,empirical formula and empirical value methods.It is difficult and believed to be the technical key point to accurately predict recovery rate in review of the calculation of newly-proved and recoverable reserves.According to the current situations and problems of recovery rate prediction,it has been presented in this paper the merits and demerits of all kinds of methods for recovery prediction.The selection-order of these methods is from empirical value method (small field),analogy verification method (medium field),empirical formula method,comprehensive geological method to numerical modeling for further verification (big fields).The analogy series and empirical value standards applicable to the SINOPEC oil fields have been built,providing supports for the recovery rate prediction of newly-proved reserves.