高速铁路、劳动力流动与制造业就业波动——基于中介效应模型的分析

基于1999—2013年的制造业微观数据估计了中国271个城市的就业变动指标,进而基于劳动力流动的中介效应模型探讨了高速铁路对于城市就业波动的影响效应.研究发现,高速铁路虽然能够有效促进劳动力跨城市的流动,但显著降低了就业创造率和就业破坏率,即存在着"双抑制"现象,并且在两者的耦合作用下对就业净增长率造成负向冲击.在区...

High-Speed Railway,Labor Mobility and Employment of Manufacturing Industry:Analysis Based on the Mediation Model

Based on the microcosmic data of manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2013,this paperestimates the index of urban employment fluctuation and discusses the effect of high-speed railway onurban employment fluctuation.This paper finds that high-speed railway can effectively promote theflow of labor across cities,but it significantly reduces the rates of employment creation and employmentdestruction,which is a"double inhibition"phenomenon.There is a negative impact on the net growthrate of employment in the coupling of employment creation and destruction.After distinguishing theheterogeneity of regions and cities,this paper finds that the phenomenon of"double inhibition"is morelikely to occur in the non-eastern and the non-first-tier cities,but the phenomenon of"creative destruction"is shown in the first-tier cities.Based on the conclusion,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestionsin order to better gain dividends brought by high-speed railway.