盾构机土压平衡系统的ARMA模型及其参数估计

为了表征盾构机土仓压力平衡系统的时滞特性和提高模型的预测精度,建立了该系统的自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型,并提出了基于优化算法的ARMA模型参数估计方法。实验结果表明,与经典的线性机理模型相对比,新模型显著提高了土仓压力的拟合和预测精度。ARMA模型预测土仓压力的最大相对误差从机理模型的41%降低到9%。结合实验数据,分析了该系统动态响应的时滞特性,分析表明,螺旋输送机转速对下一时刻土仓压力影响的时滞特性更加明显。

Autoregressive moving average model and its parameter estimation for earth pressure balance system of shield

In order to characterize time delaying property and increase forecasting precision of earth pressure balance system of shield，an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was proposed.Based on optimization algorithm，parameter estimation procedure was presented to determine ARMA model parameters.The experimental investigation shows that compared with classic mechanism model，ARMA model obviously increases fitting and forecasting precisions.The maximum relative error of computed earth pressure falls from 41% to 9% forecasted by ARMA model.According to experimental data，the time delaying properties of the dynamic response of the system was discussed.The affection of past rotating speed of conveyor on earth pressure on next time is more obvious.