Framework for modelling and simulating the supply process monitoring to detect and predict disruptive events

Disruptive events that take place during supply process execution produce negative effects that propagate throughout a supply chain. Event management systems for supply chains have emerged to provide functionality for monitoring schedules, managing disruption, and repairing schedules affected by a disruptive event. A Web service that provides a schedule monitoring functionality for supply chain event management was developed. This paper provides a framework to allow enterprises that hire this service to develop simulation models of monitoring processes and evaluate their ability to detect and anticipate disruptive events. The framework, based on discrete event simulation, is implemented in a library that can be used for developing and testing monitoring processes by means of a friendly interface. A marine freight transport process was used as a case study to show how a supply process and its environment can be modelled and simulated by using the library. Simulation results show the ability of this approach to anticipate disruptive events and identify critical stages of a supply process in order to prevent disruptive events.