An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, China;2. School of Software Technology, Shanxi University, China;1. Department of Economics, School of Business, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia;2. Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus, Piraeus, Greece;1. School of Finance, Nanjing Audit University, China;2. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, China;3. Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China;4. Jiangsu key laboratory of financial engineering, Nanjing Audit University, China;1. Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, 581 83 Linköping, Sweden;2. Newcastle Business School, The University of Newcastle, Australia;3. Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France;4. Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology (SZABIST), Pakistan;1. Research School of Economics, The Australian National University (ANU), Australia;2. Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, Australia |
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| Abstract: | Using the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2014, this paper studies the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-economy. We find output and interest rate respond significantly to oil price shocks. Further analysis reveals that the positive response of output to oil price shocks is attributed to the influences of oil price shocks on exports. The oil price shocks have both longer and deeper effects on the exports of state-owned enterprises than on those of foreign investment enterprises. Moreover, the response of exports to oil price shocks is symmetric. Finally, oil prices are found to be useful for forecasting the China's exports in the periods shorter than about two years. |
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