Seismic Fragility of Continuous Steel Highway Bridges in New York State

This paper presents the results of an analytical seismic fragility analysis of a typical steel highway bridge in New York State. The structural type and topological layout of this multispan I-girder bridge have been identified to be most typical of continuous bridges in New York State. The structural details of the bridge are designed as per New York State bridge design guidelines. Uncertainties associated with the estimation of material strength, bridge mass, friction coefficient of expansion bearings, and expansion-joint gap size are considered. To account for the uncertainties related to the bridge structural properties and earthquake characteristics, ten statistical bridge samples are established using the Latin Hypercube sampling and restricted pairing approach, and 100 ground motions are simulated numerically. The uncertainties of capacity and demand are estimated simultaneously by using the ratios of demands to capacities at different limit states to construct seismic fragility curves as a function of peak ground acceleration and fragility surfaces as a function of moment magnitude and epicentral distance for individual components using nonlinear and multivariate regressions. It has been observed that nonlinear and multivariate regressions show better fit to bridge response data than linear regression conventionally used. To account for seismic risk from multiple failure modes, second-order reliability yields narrower bounds than the commonly used first-order reliability method. The fragility curves and surfaces obtained from this analysis demonstrate that bridges in New York State have reasonably low likelihood of collapse during expected earthquakes.