电价预测技术综述

电力工业从垄断走向市场，使得电价不再由政府确定，而是在市场机制下产生。电价波动会影响市场参与者的经济利益。对电力市场参与者而言，准确地预测电价具有非常重要的意义。该论文以电力系统短期边际价格为主要研究对象。首先分析了电价的变化特点、影响电价的主要因素，明确电价变化的规律性。然后介绍了一些现有因素分析的方法。并对当前电价预测方法按其工作原理进行分类总结，最后根据各类电价预测模型的特点尤其利用神经网络方法建立的预测模型进行了深入分析和总结。

A Review of Electricity Price Forecasting Technique

In recent years, the deregulation of electric power industry worldwide raises many challenging issues and the competitive electric power markets are becoming more sophisticated. Price forecasting is important of market participants to hedge against volatility of the price and to maximize their benefits and utilities. This paper mainly focus on the prediction of short-term system marginal price. The main influence factors and the variation characteristic of the electric price are deeply discussed after reaffirming the regularity of the electricity price and analyzing the factors affecting electricity prices. Then,it gave brief account of the factor analysis methods which have been used for analyzing in recent years. Finally,it classified and summarized the electricity price forecasting method based on its operating principle. The electricity price forecasting models which was built by the ANN method was also analyzed in it.