Threat analysis for transport of radioactive material using morphological analysis

Abstract

The Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) was commissioned by the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate to carry out a pilot study which would serve as the basis for a revised set of regulations regarding physical protection and administrative routines for the transport of radioactive material. The pilot study was to develop a prototype model by which a comprehensive threat analysis could be carried out. The study employed computer aided morphological analysis, which is a flexible, non-quantified modelling method developed at FOI during the 1990s. The paper will present the methodological foundations of morphological analysis and present the prototype models involving general threat scenarios, transport situations, antagonists and strategic measures.