基于弹性系数法的湖南省有色金属资源供需安全研究

基于有色金属矿产的资源特点和国家“十三五”规划战略思想的大背景，认为湖南省有色金属产业正面临着机遇与挑战并存的局面。将资源安全与市场经济结合进行研究，从有色金属的市场供求关系入手，利用弹性系数法进行定性定量分析，测算了2006~2015年湖南省有色金属年均消费、生产弹性系数及未来5年的市场供需情况。建立矿产资源供需安全度评定指标，分析了10年内湖南省有色金属安全状况及未来发展形势。结果显示，湖南有色金属资源综合利用率较低，产业结构配置不平衡，产品精制程度低且科技含量不高，预计未来将出现供需严重失衡现象，资源安全性大大降低。最后，以平衡市场供需压力为基点，从5个方面为保障湖南省有色金属资源安全与产业经济发展提出了对策建议。

Research on the Safety Degree of Hunan Province Nonferrous Metals Resources Based on Elastic Coefficient Method

Based on nonferrous metals resources characteristics and the background of the 13th Five-Year Plan strategic thoughts，Hunan nonferrous metals industry is faced to the coexistence of opportunities and challenges. By combining resource security with market economy，the study focus on the market supply and demand of nonferrous metals,the annual consumption and production elasticity coefficient of Hunan nonferrous metals market during 2006~2015 was calculated,and the market supply and demand situation in the next five years was analyzed with the elastic coefficient method.The evaluation index named mineral resources supply and demand safety degree was established to analyze the security situation of nonferrous metals resources in Hunan Province.The result shows that there are many problems about Hunan nonferrous metals resources，like low resource utilization，unbalanced industrial structure allocation，low-refined products with poor technology content etc.It is estimated that there will be a serious imbalance between supply and demand in the future and the resource security will be greatly reduced. Based on balancing the pressure of market supply and demand，advice was offered to promote the development of Hunan nonferrous metal resources safety and industrial economy from five aspects.