海外矿业投资环境风险评价研究

海外矿业投资环境存在较大的不确定性，基于现有文献、专家经验和世界银行等数据，对海外矿业投资环境进行了风险因素识别，构建了以政治政策、经济金融、社会文化和基础设施为一级指标的风险评价指标体系。利用德尔菲法确定指标权重，根据世界银行等发布的数据以及公认的等级划分规则对评价指标进行了分级，引入变权原理建立了激励型变权评价模型，并选取12个国家进行模型应用。评价结果显示：矿业投资环境风险较低的国家有加拿大、美国、新西兰和罗马尼亚，为矿业投资首选区；风险一般的国家有菲律宾、南非、澳大利亚和墨西哥，为矿业投资次选区；风险较高的国家有俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、肯尼亚和巴西，为矿业投资慎选区。同时，应关注各个国家投资环境中的极端指标可能给项目运营带来的影响。最后提出了相关建议，以帮助矿山企业降低投资风险，为政府部门制定海外矿业投资政策及实施分类管理提供决策依据。

Study on Environmental Risk Evaluation of Overseas Mining Investment

Uncertainty always exists in the overseas mining investment environment.Based on related literatures，expert experience and the data from the World Bank，etc，risk factors of the overseas mining investment environment were identified.A risk evaluation index system was established with political policies，economy and finance，society and culture，and infrastructure facilities as four primary indexes.Delphi method was used to determine the index weights，and the secondary indexes were graded according to the data from the World Bank，etc and recognized grading rules.The principle of contingency theory was introduced to establish an evaluation model with incentive variable weights.Twelve countries were selected for applications.The evaluation results show that countries with lower mining environmental risks are Canada，the United States，New Zealand，and Romania，which are the preferred areas for mining investment；countries with general risks are Philippines，South Africa，Australia and Mexico，which are the sub-selected areas；countries with higher risks are Russia，Kazakhstan，Kenya and Brazil，which are the cautious-selected areas.Meanwhile，more attentions should be paid to the extreme indicators which may have adversely impacts on the operations of the project.Finally，some relevant suggestions were put forward，which may be helpful for the mining companies to reduce the investment risks and provide decision basis for the government to formulate overseas mining investment policies and implement classified management.