基于SWAT模型的秦淮河流域气候变化水文响应研究

为了解气候变化对水文水资源的影响机理,以秦淮河流域为研究区构建SWAT模型,使用SWAT-CUP对模型进行参数敏感性分析、率定及验证,并采用任意假设法设计未来气候情景,分析温度及降雨变化对流域径流及实际蒸散发量的影响。结果表明:模型在月径流模拟中具有较高的精度,适用于秦淮河流域气候变化下的水文响应研究;气温降低或降雨量上升都会引起流域径流量增加,反之则减少;实际蒸散发量与降雨量正相关,而实际蒸散发量对气温变化的响应不明显;平水年径流量对降雨量变化的响应较强,枯水年径流量对温度变化的响应较强;枯水年实际蒸散发量对降雨量变化的响应较强。

Hydrological responses to climate change in Qinhuai river basin based on SWAT model

In order to understand the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources, the established SWAT model in the Qinhuai River basin was used, the SWAT-CUP was used for the sensitivity analysis, calibration and validations of model parameters; runoff and actual evapotranspiration change in response to rainfall and temperature change were analyzed with assuming method to design future climate scenarios. The results indicated that: the SWAT model had high precision in monthly runoff simulation, and it can be used for researching hydrological response of the Qinhuai River basin under climate change; the declined temperature or increased precipitation would lead to increased runoff in the basin, on the contrary the runoff decreased; the actual evapotranspiration and precipitation were positively correlated, while the response of actual evapotranspiration to the change of temperature was not obvious; the runoff response to rainfall change was more stronger in the normal year, the runoff response to temperature change was more stronger in the dry year; and the actual evapotranspiration response to the rainfall change was more stronger in the dry year.