终端区多场景有人机/无人机空中碰撞风险研究

随着无人机产业的蓬勃发展和应用场景的不断拓展，无人机干扰航班正常运行的情况时有发生。为研究终端区内无人机与有人机的碰撞风险，本文构建3类典型场景:无人机与有人机在航路中运行；无人机与有人机自由飞行；无人机自由飞行，有人机在航路中或沿进离场程序飞行。场景一使用Reich模型，利用正态分布函数计算碰撞概率。场景二使用气体模型，考虑航空器速度大小方向对碰撞概率的影响。针对前两者的局限性，提出更符合实际运行场景三的改进碰撞模型，通过有人机与无人机的4D航迹冲突，结合蒙特卡洛法进行仿真，计算有人机与无人机的碰撞概率。结果表明，基于4D航迹冲突的碰撞概率计算方法能够满足终端区内有人机/无人机碰撞风险估算需求。

Air Collision Risk of Manned Drones in Multiple Scenarios in the Terminal Area

The lack of properly regulated UAVs interferes with the normal operation of flights and poses a risk to transportation aviation, and such problems will become more prominent with the booming UAV industry. To study the risk of collision between UAVs and manned aircraft in the terminal area, three scenarios are constructed: both UAVs and manned aircraft operate on the flight path; both UAVs and manned aircraft fly freely; and UAVs fly freely with manned aircraft approaching or departing. The first scenario uses the Reich model and assumes that the PBN and GPS positioning errors conform to a normal distribution, and uses the normal distribution function to calculate the collision probability. The second scenario uses the gas model and considers the effect of the manned aircraft velocity magnitude direction on the collision probability. Due to the limitations of the first two models, an improved collision model is proposed for the third scenario, and the collision probability between manned and unmanned aircraft is obtained by judging the 4D trajectory of manned and unmanned aircraft, combined with Monte Carlo method for simulation.