基于无标度网络的信用风险传导模型

为研究信用风险在经济网络中的传播机制，在考虑企业之间异质性和底层网络的无标度特性后，提出一种基于无标度网络的信用风险传导模型。根据平均场理论，文章首先分析了信用风险传导的动态过程，并进一步计算出动态方程的基本再生数和平衡点，推理论证了传导过程的持续性与基本再生数的关系；然后在仿真实验中，分别模拟了在无干预措施和在救援策略、免疫策略干预下的风险传导过程，并对每个参数的灵敏度进行了分析。通过理论推导和仿真实验可以得出，当基本再生数小于1时，市场逐渐脱离信用风险恢复正常，各企业度过信用危机；当基本再生数大于等于1时，信用风险将继续在经济网络中传播，持续影响经济安全。模型的推导和仿真为研究信用风险的传播提供了参考。

The Credit Risk Transmission Model Based on Scale-free Network

In order to study the transmission mechanism of credit risk in economic network, considered the heterogeneity between enterprises and the scale-free characteristics of the underlying network, a credit risk transmission model is proposed. According to the mean field theory, this paper analyzes the dynamic process, further calculates the basic reproductive rate and equilibrium point, and demonstrates the relationship between the continuity of the transmission process and the basic reproductive rate. Then, in the simulation experiment, the risk transmission process without intervention, with rescue strategy and immune strategy was simulated, and the sensitivity of each parameter was analyzed. Through theoretical derivation and simulation experiments, it can be concluded that when the basic reproductive rate is less than 1, and the market gradually breaks away from the credit risk and returns to normal, and all enterprises get through the credit crisis; when the basic reproductive rate is greater than 1, credit risk will continue to spread in the economic network and continue to affect economic security. The derivation and experiment of the model provide a theoretical basis for the study of the spread of credit risk.