中国不同气候区日总太阳辐射计算模型适用性分析及通用计算模型优化

利用中国5个气候区96个气象台站的1981—2010年的日值气象数据,对比分析12个基于日照百分率和12个基于温度的日总太阳辐射计算模型在不同气候区的适用性。采用判定系数（R²）、均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对误差（MABE）、平均误差（MBE）和全局性能系数（GPI）5个评价指标,确定各气候区最适宜的模型形式。以该模型为基准,建立适用于中国不同气候区的基于日照百分率和基于温度的日总太阳辐射通用计算模型。结果表明,三次方形式的基于日照百分率和基于日较差-平均温度的模型在各气候区计算精度均最高;以该模型为基础,建立适用于中国不同气候区的基于日照百分率和基于温度的日总太阳辐射通用计算模型,其平均R²分别为0.91和0.68。

SUITABILITY OF MODELS FOR DAILY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATION IN DIFFERENT CLIMATIC ZONES OF CHINA AND OPTIMIZATION OF GENERAL MODELS

Using the daily meteorological data during 1981-2010 from 96 meteorological station in five different climatic zones of China, 12 sunshine-based and 12 temperature-based daily global solar radiation models were compared and analyzed to determine the suitability of these models in different climatic zones. Five evaluation indexes, including determination of coefficient （R²）, root mean square error （RMSE）, mean absolute bias error （MABE）, mean bias error （MBE） and global performance index （GPI）, were adopted to determine the optimal model forms in different climatic zones. Based on these models, the sunshine-based and temperature-based generalized global solar radiation estimation models suitable for different climatic zones of China were developed. The results showed that the cubic sunshine-based and temperature diurnal- and average temperature-based models performed the best in each zone, furthermore, the generalized models based on the two models yielded high accuracy with average R² of 0.91 and 0.68.