考虑综合需求响应混合不确定性的综合能源系统优化调度策略

综合需求响应(integrated demand response,IDR)是挖掘综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)负荷侧调节潜力的主要手段。然而,IDR用户的用能行为具有随机性、模糊性相耦合的混合不确定性特征,由此产生的IDR不确定性不仅会给调度策略的制定带来挑战,而且会对系统的可靠性产生影响,甚至可能引起负荷断供。针对上述问题,首先提出了基于改进PMV-PPD(predicted mean vote-predicted percentage of dissatisfied)指标的用户参与意愿评估模型;其次,基于云模型理论,建立了考虑混合不确定性的价格型IDR模型;在此基础上,综合考虑各类能源响应量边界和价格弹性系数等因素的不确定性,提出了IES优化调度策略。算例结果表明所提的IES优化调度策略可以更好地应对IDR不确定性带来的负荷波动,有效提升系统可靠性。

Optimal Scheduling Strategy for Integrated Energy System Considering Mixed Uncertainties of Integrated Demand Response

Integrated demand response (IDR) is the main means to exploit the load-side regulation potential of the integrated energy system (IES). However, IDR users’ energy consumption behaviors are characterized by random-fuzzy mixed uncertainties, which will not only bring challenges to the formulation of scheduling strategy, but also affect the reliability of the system, and may even lead to load outage. To solve the above problem, firstly, a model based on the improved PMV-PPD index to evaluate user participation willingness is proposed. Secondly, according to the cloud model theory, a price IDR model considering mixed uncertainties is established. On the basis of these, the IES optimal scheduling strategy considering the uncertainties of various energy response boundaries and price elasticity coefficients is proposed. The results of examples show that the proposed IES optimal scheduling strategy can better deal with the load fluctuation caused by the uncertainties of IDR and improve system reliability effectively.